Author Archive

August 27, 2010

By Mark P. Barry

Early this month, cash-strapped North Korea offered to repay its long-standing debt with former socialist ally, the Czech Republic, through barter and offered 400 tons of ginseng. The Czechs responded they only use one ton a year, but would accept zinc ore. Then on August 15, in his Liberation Day address, South Korean president Lee Myung-bak proposed the nation adopt a unification tax to prepare for unification with the North, reflecting an anxiety about North Korea’s near-term stability and potential for collapse. These two events raise questions about North Korea’s current condition and the costs and benefits of reunification.

The North’s economy remains in dire economic straits. It had considerably worsened from the early 1990s after aid was drastically cut from the Soviet Union and China. Floods and severe food shortages beginning in 1996 compounded the hardships of life for North Koreans, and perhaps two million died of hunger. Even this year, with humanitarian food aid at a low, it has been extremely difficult for its people to feed themselves from the spring through the summer; major flooding has again compounded these problems.

China regularly provides additional food and energy supplies to the North to maintain stability on its border. Its northeastern provinces also have increased their investment in North Korea, which the North welcomes in the short-term, but is very wary of in the longer run. Koreans, north and south, express concern that China could gain enough economic leverage in the North to make it impossible for the North to remain independent or for Korean reunification to occur without Chinese assent.

North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, suffered a stroke in 2008, and is regarded to be in declining health. He has apparently selected his third son, Kim Jong-eun, 27 or 28, as his successor, with his brother-in-law, Jang Song-taek, acting as a modern regent. The youngest Kim has no official title yet, but that could change when a major Korean Worker’s Party meeting is held next month. A succession should be in place by 2012, the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s birth.

The elder Kim is presently in China, likely introducing his son to the Chinese leadership, even at the expense of not meeting visiting former U.S. President Jimmy Carter who had come on a humanitarian mission. Carter, with behind the scenes assistance from the Summit Council in enabling CNN to accompany him, defused a nuclear crisis in 1994 when he met in Pyongyang with the late DPRK President Kim Il Sung.

North Korea’s March 26th sinking (which it publicly disavows) of the South Korean navy vessel, the Cheonan, may have been credited to Kim Jong-eun as a way of beefing up his credentials before the North’s military. One rationale for the sinking, reportedly was the lack of a response by South Korea’s conservative government to the North’s request for a third summit meeting.

Kim Jong-eun also is said to have been behind the North’s disastrous currency reform last November, which wiped out the savings of the North Korean elite and emerging middle class. Rather than strengthening the regime’s grip on power, this reform is reported to have created great bitterness toward the Kim family and worsened the people’s economic plight. Now, when possible, people hoard Chinese yuan rather than North Korean won.

Yet, North Korea has become more porous in recent years. Nearly 200,000 people possess legal cell phones (for domestic use only), and many more illegal ones are owned by North Koreans along China’s border, who can call relatives in the South. Moreover, South Korean movies, TV dramas and music, smuggled in on tapes and DVDs and watched on cheap Chinese players, are popular among many North Korean teenagers and college students. This has enabled them to compare their lives in the North with those in the South and China.

Does all this mean North Korea is ripe for revolution or collapse? Experts who know North Korea best say it will most likely continue to muddle through, since it has endured greater hardships during and after the Korean War and at other points in its history. Much speculation about instability or collapse reflects the wishful thinking of those who compare North Korea to the former Eastern European socialist states. This is not to say that discussions among the U.S., South Korea and China should not occur about possible scenarios for North Korean instability; after all, the unexpected can happen.

But the prudent approach is to find ways to influence a North Korean evolution away from totalitarianism while gradually building the North’s economy to a level where its reintegration with the South will be less drastic. Some say normalization of U.S. and Japanese relations with North Korea will help balance China’s overbearing influence in the North, and in particular, establishment at an authoritative level of a more trusting relationship with the U.S. will quell the North’s nuclear program.

A unification tax may not be enacted anytime soon, and the North surely regards the tax idea as a sign of a South Korean intention to absorb its northern neighbor, but it is right to start thinking about the goal of unification. That this year is the 60th anniversary of the Korean War (notably being commemorated in a tour of the 16 nations that fought on the UN side by the Little Angels Children’s Folk Ballet, founded by Rev. Sun Myung Moon) reminds us the war remains unresolved and is technically in an armistice. At some point, a permanent Korean peace agreement needs to be achieved, with the support of the U.S., China and the United Nations.

What about the costs and risks of Korean reunification? Usually, South Korean governments have been informed by the German experience of reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. East Germany’s economy was about one-third that of West Germany’s. But South Korea’s economy is 37 times greater than the North’s. This disparity makes unification very unappealing to South Koreans, since the costs seem almost unbearable, and sure to lower standards of living.

But last September, Goldman Sachs, the leading investment bank, issued a study arguing that the German model is the wrong one to follow, that better models for Korean reintegration would be the reform of the economies of Vietnam, Mongolia and the former Eastern European socialist states. Moreover, it said, the two Koreas have remarkable synergies, including talented human capital and rich mineral resources in the North. Goldman Sachs saw Korean unification more of a win-win scenario that could be far less onerous than previously thought. It projected that by 2050 a united Korea’s economy would exceed that of Britain, France and Germany, and possibly Japan. Last week, the world’s largest economic analysis firm, IHS Global Insight, went even further, saying Korea would surpass Japan in per capita income by 2031 (meanwhile, this past quarter, China became the world’s second-largest economy). Clearly, a united Korea is poised to become a powerful force in the world; even this November, Seoul plays host to the G-20 economic summit.

One can argue that, at whatever pace Korean unification is eventually achieved, the attitudes of the Korean people, especially in the South, will be pivotal. On this subject, in his 80th birthday address* in February 2000, Rev. Moon observed:

“…Healing the division between North and South is not a simple process. As fellow patriots struggle to bring this about, they will need a determination of heart to work through many sleepless nights, transcending time, and overcoming all manner of difficulties. ‘I truly want to live with them. I don’t want to die unless I can die with them. I don’t want to live unless I can live with them.’ The movement for North-South unification begins when both sides have such a heart toward the other.”

Korean unification cannot be a zero-sum game; both sides need to become winners. The South has the far larger population and economy, and is a democracy with religious freedom. Most likely, real progress in inter-Korean relations will take place when the South demonstrates such overriding concern for its brethren in the north, both in public policy and in the diverse actions of the private sector.

*See http://www.unification.net/2000/20000210.html for full text.

____________________________
Dr. Mark P. Barry is a senior fellow for public policy at the Summit Council for World Peace. The views expressed here are his own.

June 28, 2010

ROK President Lee Myung-bak (right) meets with U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon (left) before attending a welcoming ceremony of the G20 summit in Toronto, Canada on June 26.

This weekend’s G-20 summit in Toronto, which chose to put off a number of thorny topics, was seen as preparation for South Korea to host the next session in November that may decide the fate of the new premier forum for international economic cooperation.

South Korean government officials said the G-20 members produced some agreements in Toronto, such as reduction in deficits, but relegated the more difficult issues to the Seoul forum.

The G-20 members set their top goal of strong, sustainable and balanced growth, but “Seoul will be the stage for producing tangible fruits,” one official noted.

Overshadowed by the eurozone debt crisis, world leaders put controversial proposals of bank taxes, readjustments of IMF quotas, and so-called exit strategies on the back burner. This led a Seoul official to observe: “For South Korea, the November summit is a high-return and high-risk event.”

The largest economies are reportedly split over the balance between growth and belt-tightening when there is still fear of a double-dip recession. The U.S. has called for the main economies to continue stimulus spending to maintain recovery, but European members, wary of the broader impact of the Greek debt crisis, demanded a speedy shift to government belt-tightening. They reached a compromise to at least halve their deficits by 2013 but left the door open for flexibility in implementing the non-binding deal.

The G-20, launched in 2008 to counter the global financial crisis, is widely credited with having prevented the world from plunging into a greater economic depression. There was remarkable unity at the three previous summits in Washington, London and Pittsburgh. But to some, the G-20 has already lost steam and its future is up in the air, so the Seoul summit will be a watershed.

South Korea hopes to play a bridging role between advanced and developing nations, taking advantage of its experience of transition from aid recipient to donor.

ROK President Lee Myung-bak formally proposed that development issues be discussed in the Seoul session, as well as his offer to establish global financial safety nets to minimize the impact on emerging countries from sudden capital flows.

Read the full Toronto G-20 Summit Declaration here

Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak (center) and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao

South Korea, Japan, and China announced a new plan today for cooperation and the establishment of a secretariat in the future, concluding their annual summit held on Jeju Island.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that despite rapid development in their partnership over the past ten years, there was still room for better cooperation in promoting economic, political, social, and cultural exchanges, as well as jointly addressing regional and global issues.

“We need to combine our capacities and enhance trilateral cooperation to a higher level so that our future-oriented comprehensive cooperative partnership will be more solid,” they said in their joint press release. For that, the three countries plan to establish the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat in South Korea in 2011, it said.

The secretariat will provide administrative and technical support for the operation and management of trilateral consultative mechanisms and facilitate the exploration and implementation of cooperative projects. “By the year 2012, we will endeavor to complete the joint study for a free trade agreement (FTA) among China, Japan, and South Korea, which was launched in May 2010,” the leaders said.

The regional powers will also continue to strive to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula on the basis of the September 19, 2005 Joint Statement, produced at the Six Party Talks on North Korea’s nuclear program. They also adopted joint statements on improving standards cooperation and strengthening cooperation in science.

South Korea, Japan, and China began holding three-way summits in 1999 on the sidelines of the ASEAN+3 foreign ministerial talks. They launched the summit in its present form in 2008, taking turns as host. Japan will host the next year’s meeting.

Read the Joint Press Release here and about Trilateral Cooperation Vision 2020 here.

April 14, 2010

South Korea’s President Lee Myung-bak addresses the Nuclear Security Summit on April 13 in Washington, DC.

At the Nuclear Security Summit held in Washington, D.C. on April 13, the Republic of Korea was chosen as the host of the next Summit in the first half of 2012.

As President Barack Obama opened the first Summit and explained its purpose, he nominated South Korea to host of the second Nuclear Security Summit, which was then unanimously approved by the participating leaders. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak responded by shaking hands with President Obama and accepted the honor.

In the first session of the Summit held in the morning, President Lee took the podium as the first presenter to introduce the ROK’s measures for the physical protection of nuclear materials, the topic of the first session. He also laid out what contributions South Korea would make to the international community.

The U.S. and other participating nations at the Summit actively supported South Korea’s hosting of the next Nuclear Security Summit considering that South Korea has complied with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and followed other related international norms, setting an example of utilizing nuclear power for peaceful purposes. Also the Korean Peninsula bears crucial significance in terms of resolving nuclear issues.

Since South Korea is directly involved in resolving the issue of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, the hosting of the next Summit is expected to help rally the international community to make a stronger commitment to settling the issue. A South Korean official said the presidential office is looking into the possibility of inviting North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to the 2012 Summit, especially if the North were to make meaningful progress in denuclearization in the next two years.

South Korea’s hosting of the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit along with the November 2010 G-20 Summit demonstrates that its status and prestige is rising in the international community, as the G-20 meeting is the world’s premier economic consultative body and the Nuclear Security Summit is the highest-level conference in global nuclear security.

The first Nuclear Security Summit in Washington was the largest gathering of world leaders (outside of the UN) hosted by the United States in recent history, and the second meeting in South Korea promises to be the largest summit Korea will have hosted in its history.

Read President Obama’s remarks at the Nuclear Security Summit here

April 13, 2010

The Summit Council is sad to learn of the passing of a member of its Board of Presidents, Bishop Abel T. Muzorewa, the first black prime minister of the interim government before Zimbabwe’s independence, who died at his Harare home on April 8. His ambition, he said, had been to do “what Mandela did in South Africa – achieve a political resolution of his country’s problems without bloodshed.” He was for many years a great friend of our Founder, Rev. Sun Myung Moon, and played a very active role as well with an affiliated organization, the Universal Peace Federation.

A Methodist bishop, Muzorewa joined the government of the short-lived Zimbabwe-Rhodesia in a deal with Ian Smith, the last white prime minister, in 1978, two years ahead of the first all-race elections that swept current President Robert Mugabe to power and dropped the name of Rhodesia, as the former British colony was known. He was granted peace awards by both Pope John Paul II and the United Nations in the 1970s for his efforts to achieve the independence of his country.

Muzorewa led efforts throughout the 1970s to forge a non-violent transition from white-ruled Rhodesia to majority rule in the newly-renamed Zimbabwe. Although imprisoned for a time by the Mugabe government, he continued to lead the Methodist Church in Zimbabwe as a preacher and through numerous charitable works. He retired in 1992, yet continued to minister to the people of his nation, notably as patron of the Araunah Mission Fellowship for the blind. Bishop Muzorewa was recognized as one of the outstanding African Christians of the twentieth century, and a very strong proponent of non-violence.

Bishop Muzorewa was the eldest of a lay preacher’s eight children. He was educated at Old Umtali, a United Methodist school near Mutare, and served as a lay preacher. He earned an M.A. in philosophy and religion from Central Methodist College in Missouri and in 1968 was consecrated as Bishop of Rhodesia in the United Methodist Church. He received an honorary doctorate from Unification Theological Seminary in 2007. He authored two books, Rise Up and Walk and Evangelism that De-colonialises the Soul.

Deeply saddened by the violence following the 2008 Zimbabwe elections, he issued a prophetic call for his countrymen “in the name of God the creator and sustainer of human life and of freedom” to stop “the pervasive demonic culture of impunity, if Zimbabwe is to be a united, peaceful, enjoyable and prosperous nation.”

Director of Christian Care, Reverend Forbes Matonga, described Muzorewa’s legacy as “his role in the country’s transition to independence, the Methodist Church and the founding of Africa University in the eastern Zimbabwean city of Mutare.” Political commentator John Makumbe said Muzorewa’s legacy in Zimbabwe would be that of “a man of peace.” The BBC’s Peter Biles described him as “one of the most prominent political figures in the turbulent years before the independence of Zimbabwe.”

Muzorewa was married in 1951 to Maggie Chigodora. He is survived by three sons and a daughter. He will be buried April 17 at the old Mutare Mission in Mutare.

April 3, 2010

Deputy foreign ministers from South Korea, Japan and China met on South Korea’s Jeju Island to work out details for their annual three-way summit, Seoul’s foreign ministry said Saturday. A meeting between South Korea’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Lee Yong-joon, and his counterparts from Japan and China was held on April 2 on the southern resort island, expected also to be the site for the three-way summit likely to take place in May.

Among issues reportedly discussed included the continual efforts to bring North Korea back to the Six-Party Talks (which include both Koreas, the United States, Japan, China, and Russia), other regional and international concerns, and further promoting three-way cooperation. The upcoming South Korea-Japan-China summit is the third to be held by leaders of these Northeast Asian countries. The summit will be chaired by South Korea as the host.

Five rounds of Six Party Talks were held from 2003 to 2007, which produced little net progress until the February 2007, when North Korea agreed to shut down its nuclear facilities in exchange for fuel aid and steps towards the normalization of relations with the U.S. and Japan. Responding angrily to the UN Security Council’s unanimous decision to condemn North Korea over its failed satellite launch in April 2009, North Korea declared it would pull out of the talks for good and would resume its nuclear enrichment program. In May 2009, North Korea then detonated a second underground nuclear device, an action condemned by the United Nations, the other five members of the Six-Party Talks, and many other countries worldwide.

World Russia Forum

The Summit Council for World Peace is co-hosting with the American University in Moscow the 29th annual World Russia Forum in Washington, D.C., on April 26-27, 2010 at the Hart Senate Office Building, George Washington University, and the Russian Cultural Center. The Forum is one of the leading venues for the discussion and analysis of U.S.-Russia political, economic, social, and cultural relations. It has been annually attended by senior Russian officials, members of the Russian Duma, and leading Russian businessmen, who gather for discussions with their American counterparts.

This year the World Russia Forum takes place on the anniversary of an historic event in U.S.-Russian history. On April 25, 1945, in the last year of World War II, American and Russian forces (traveling from west and east, respectively) linked up 75 miles south of Berlin in the town of Torgau, Germany, on the Elbe River. When the troops met, they effectively bifurcated Germany, contributing to the end of the Third Reich. April 25, 2010 marks the 65th anniversary of that momentous meeting between the U.S. Army’s 69th Infantry Division and Russia’s 58th Guards Division, and will be commemorated in a cultural event on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., the day before the Forum, on Sunday, April 25.

Speakers on the American side include: U.S. Secretary of Energy, Hon. Dr. Steven Chu; Director of National Drug Control Policy, Hon. R. Gil Kerlikowske; and Hon. William J. Burns, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs. From Russia, attending will be: Hon. Victor Ivanov, Head, Federal Drug Enforcement Service; Hon. Sergei Ryabkov, Chief Arms Control Negotiator; and Hon. Constantin Kosachev, Chairman, Committee on Foreign Relations, Russian State Duma.

For more information, email WorldRussiaForum@gmail.com or visit this site

60th Anniversary of the Korean War

June 25 marks the 60th anniversary of the start of the Korean War, in which soldiers from 16 nations fighting under the United Nations flag deterred aggression against the Republic of Korea and preserved freedom.

In June, the renown Little Angels Children’s Folk Ballet of Korea will commence a tour to the 16 countries that contributed troops to the UN as an expression of gratitude to those who came to Korea’s aid. Initially, they will perform at the Kennedy Center in Washington, DC; New York; Atlanta; Ottawa, Canada; and Bogotá, Colombia; the tour will then shift to Southeast Asia and Oceania this fall, and Europe and Africa in 2011. The Summit Council is providing significant administrative support to the Korean War 60th Anniversary Memorial Committee for this worldwide tour.

The Little Angels have performed at the White House, at the United Nations General Assembly, before HRH Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace, at the Kremlin, as well as at other notable venues throughout the world. These children are a symbol of peace and the Korean people’s ambassadors for peace and goodwill.

Letters of welcome for the Little Angels tour have been received from H. E. Lee Myung-bak, President of the Republic of Korea; Hon. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives; Hon. George H. W. Bush, President of the United States (1989-93); Hon. George W. Bush, President of the United States (2001-2009); and Gen. Colin Powell, U.S. Secretary of State (2001-05).

On June 25, the Summit Council will co-host a wreath-laying ceremony with the Embassy of the Republic of Korea at the Korean War Memorial. After the short ceremony, guests are invited to the nearby stage area by the reflecting pool for formal remarks and a Little Angels performance. Veterans are especially welcome to attend. For more information, contact koreanwar60@gmail.com or visit this site

H.E. Steingrímur Hermannsson (1928-2010)

It is with great sadness that the Summit Council notes the passing of H.E. Steingrímur Hermannsson, former Prime Minister of Iceland, and a member of the Summit Council’s Board of Presidents, on February 1, 2010.

Steingrímur (his surname) studied engineering at Reykajavik College, Illinois Institute of Technology and the California Institute of Technology. He then began a long and distinguished career in the engineering and industrial development fields, both in Iceland and the United States.

He was first elected to the Icelandic parliament in 1971. He served as Prime Minister from 1983 to 1987 and again from 1988 to 1991. He also served as Minister of Justice, Ecclesiastical Affairs and Agriculture (1978–79), Minister of Fisheries and Communications (1980–83) and Minister of Foreign Affairs (1987–88). He was chairman of the Progressive Party from 1979 to 1994. From 1992, he was a member of the Board of Governors of the Central Bank of Iceland until his retirement in 1998.

Internationally, his greatest moment as Prime Minister came in October 1986, when he hosted the Reykjavik Summit of Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan. The Summit paved the way for the ending of the Cold War, and the Icelandic government’s management of the event was widely commended. In 1991, Steingrímur expressed strong support for Vytautas Landsbergis, Chairman of Lithuanian Parliament. Shortly after, Iceland was the first country to recognize the independence of Lithuania from Soviet Union.

While Prime Minister, Steingrímur fought to keep Iceland within tight constraints on carbon emissions. In later years, Steingrímur’s environmental commitment became more pronounced as he became increasingly aware of the environmental and resource challenges facing future generations. Among other actions, he helped reforest Iceland, planting 1,000 trees per year for several years.

In Iceland, Steingrímur was a beloved and respected elder statesman, and was considered a potential candidate for the 1996 presidential elections. But he declined that honor, stating his intention to retire at the age of 70. His memoirs, published in three volumes in 1998–2000, became bestsellers.

Steingrímur Hermannsson was a great friend of the Founders of the Summit Council, Rev. and Mrs. Sun Myung Moon. He is survived by his widow, Gudlaug Edda Gudmundsdóttir, and six children.

February 25, 2010

In a commentary, London’s The Guardian examined the Unity Summit of Latin American and Caribbean nations that took place February 22-23 in Cancun, Mexico. The author, Mark Weisbrot, writes, “Latin America took another historic step forward this week with the creation of a new regional organization of 32 Latin American and Caribbean countries. The United States and Canada were excluded.” He added, “The increasing independence of Latin America has been one of the most important geopolitical changes over the last decade, affecting not only the region but the rest of the world as well….Latin America, once under the control of the United States, is increasingly emerging as a power bloc with its own interests and agenda.”

Weisbrot writes, “The differences underlying the need for a new organization were clear in the statements and declarations that took place in the Unity Summit, which issued a strong statement backing Argentina in its dispute with the UK over the Malvinas (as they are called in Argentina) or Falklands Islands. The summit also condemned the continuing US embargo against Cuba. These and other measures would be almost impossible to pass in the Organization of American States, he adds. Furthermore, he claims, “the OAS has long been manipulated by the United States.” He argues that perhaps the leadership exercised by Mexico in establishing this new organization will stimulate some rethinking. He maintains that the US has become increasingly less important as a trading partner for the region, which also has found alternative sources of investment capital.

In his estimation, Weisbrot says the new organization is sorely needed because a regional organization “without the US and Canada will be more capable of defending democracy, as well as economic and social progress in the region when it is under attack. It will also have a positive influence in helping to create a more multipolar world internationally.”

Read the full article here

Read the Latin American and Caribbean Unity Summit Declaration in English

Read the Latin American and Caribbean Unity Summit Declaration in Spanish

February 26, 2010

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs released its task force report, Engaging Religious Communities Abroad: A New Imperative for U.S. Foreign Policy, on February 23 in Washington D.C. at Georgetown University. The Chicago Council convened a task force of 32 experts and stakeholders – former government officials, religious leaders, heads of international organizations, and scholars – to bring a diverse perspective to the debate over how to successfully engage religion on an international level.

Religious communities are central players in the counterinsurgency war in Afghanistan, development assistance, the promotion of human rights, stewardship of the environment, and the pursuit of peace in troubled parts of the world. The success of American diplomacy in the next decade, the Council says, will be measured in no small part by its ability to connect with the hundreds of millions of people throughout the world whose identity is defined by religion. “The challenge before us is to marginalize religious extremists, not religion,” the report concludes.

The report finds the key challenge for America internationally is to “understand the role of religion in world affairs and to constructively engage with religious communities around the world.” “Religion has played a negative role in U.S. foreign policy in the past, especially in relations with the Muslim world,” notes Thomas Wright, executive director of studies for the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the report’s project director. But since President Obama’s historic speech in Cairo on June 4, 2009, with its promise to engage with Muslim communities, the “United States has greatly improved its capacity to understand religious dynamics in world affairs,” Wright said. The report notes the Cairo speech “set the stage for a new departure in U.S. foreign policy toward Muslim communities” but “the scope must be much broader.”

The task force report, presented to the White House this week, says it takes the next step in developing a strategy to engage religious communities of all faiths in addressing foreign policy challenges.

Read the Executive Summary

Read the full report